For the third year in a row, less food will be produced in the Netherlands. According to an ING forecast, 1 per cent less will be produced this year than last year. A similar contraction was seen in 2022 and 2023.
The potato harvest in particular is disappointing, but other vegetable crops are also doing poorly. ING sector economist Thijs Geijer: "In potato and vegetable processing, shortages of suitable raw materials are putting pressure on production volumes. Canning companies are struggling to fill their jars and packets.“
Due to the wet spring, dairy production is also having problems. The soggy farmland has affected the quality of grass and this is affecting milk production. In previous years, the contraction in food production was driven more by inflation. Consumers spent less, upon which producers decided to produce less.
According to Geijer, 1 per cent is a sharp contraction. "Normally, the food industry is less sensitive to fluctuations than the rest of the industry. We all continue to eat and drink. In addition, the population is growing, so you actually expect more food to be needed."
A recognisable picture, says the food industry itself. The Federatie Nederlandse Levensmiddelen Industrie (FNLI) represents 500 Dutch food producers. According to FNLI spokesman Pascal Hopman, the effects of inflation are still affecting production: "It costs a lot of money to produce food. Besides poor harvests, energy costs, expensive transport and high interest rates have put a brake on production."
But empty shelves are not many yet, says Hopman. "Earlier this year, we did see that fresh spinach was not available for a while. It is also expected that there will be about 15 per cent less canned vegetables produced this year." Recently, canning manufacturer HAK's managing director Nicole Freid said that the Netherlands will have to get used to the fact that not every kind of vegetable will be available in jars, cans and in the freezer all year round.
It is therefore necessary to work more climate-adaptively in arable farming, a HAK spokesperson reveals. "By applying more sustainable methods of cultivation, for example, which will enable the soil and crops to cope better with weather extremes."
"The stability of food production does come under pressure," says Wijnand Sukkel, agro-ecologist at Wageningen University. According to him, on the one hand, local problems may arise from climate change, such as extreme rainfall or, on the contrary, drought. On the other hand, recent years have shown that the global food system is vulnerable to trade disruptions such as disasters and wars.
The Netherlands needs to pay more attention to food security, according to Sukkel. "If once in a while a certain product is not available, that is not so bad. And coffee and bananas we have never been able to grow here," says the agroecologist, "But for those other crops, for example, we also need a lot of fossil energy from abroad. We also depend on foreign countries for cattle feed and phosphate."
